SEAwise report on guidelines for treatment of variance in forecasts, structural uncertainty, risk communication and acceptable levels

The SEAwise project works to deliver a fully operational tool that will allow fishers, managers, and policy makers to easily apply Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in their own fisheries. This report describes the SEAwise guidelines for estimating uncertainty and the predictive capability of models; key components of the SEAwise Output Quality Assurance Process. In the project, all data and models are evaluated using this Quality Assurance Process. These guidelines were developed through a review of the published scientific literature and in consultation with SEAwise partners, members of the larger scientific community, and interested stakeholders. The guidelines are intended to support the collaborative use and development of the best available scientific tools that are fit for purpose for ecosystem-based fisheries management. As project partners work with the guidelines throughout the SEAwise regions, it is expected that the guidelines will be further developed and articulated. The guidelines are not meant to be prescriptive but rather to be used as a basic framework that specifies acceptable risk levels to ensure that predictive models are placed in the sweet spot where model complexity maximises predictive ability in a manner that works for both the developers and end users.