SEAwise report on the impact of socioeconomic effects of fisheries management adapted according to input from review workshops
The SEAwise project works to deliver a fully operational tool that will allow fishers, managers, and policy makers to easily apply Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management. SEAwise task 6.3 applies multispecies, multifleet fisheries models to assess management measures within a socio-economic framework to
- provide an initial analysis identifying potential choke species—those that may constrain the exploitation of other stocks—based on existing knowledge and current management practices (as presented in Deliverable 6.4, Bitetto et al., 2023);
- evaluate management strategies that integrate the enhanced sub-models developed in WP2 and WP3 (reported in Deliverable 6.5); and
- refine these evaluations using feedback from stakeholder review workshops (the focus of this deliverable).
The report elaborates on the input gathered during Advisory Council review workshops held between February and April 2025, to review the simulation outputs of Deliverables 6.5 (Bitetto et al., 2025) and 6.8 (Kempf et al., 2025). Five review workshops were organised to collect the feedback of stakeholders on the simulations conducted in Deliverables 6.2, 6.5 and 6.8 (Figure 3.1). The workshops covered the North Sea, Western Waters and Mediterranean Case studies. For each case study, the Advisory Councils' comments were addressed by developing additional scenarios, adjusting model parameters, clarifying previously reported results, particularly in relation to uncertainty and model assumptions or qualitatively addressing the consequences of the proposed changes. Across the regional case studies, this deliverable demonstrates how climate change, market dynamics, and management strategies interact to shape fisheries performance in diverse biological and socio-economic contexts.
In the Bay of Biscay (Western Waters case study), key stakeholder concerns raised by SWWAC focused on the influence of dynamic fish prices and TAC variability constraints on fleet performance and stock sustainability. Price dynamics were incorporated into simulations for key demersal and pelagic species, revealing that economic indicators—especially gross value added (GVA)—are sensitive to price fluctuations, particularly for hake and anchovy. For demersal fleets, variable prices caused significant income shifts, though operational effort was independent of price. In contrast, pelagic fleet effort—driven by profitability—declined under price variability, leading to reduced catches and GVA compared to fixed-price scenarios. The study also explored the effect of interannual TAC stability mechanisms, showing that while median TACs did not change, catch and GVA variability decreased, particularly for demersal mixed fleets. This reduction in variability may enhance economic predictability but comes at a cost of slightly lower long-term yields. Overall, this case study highlighted the potential impact of integrating market dynamics and management stability into future fisheries advice frameworks, especially in multi-species and mixed-fleet contexts.
In the Celtic Sea case study (Western Waters case study), stakeholders questioned the model's assumed rebuilding potential for cod and whiting, citing their likely low productivity under climate stress. New simulations show that excluding these species from the constraining group of species under RCP 8.5 leads to shifts in fleet behavior, moving choke risks toward haddock and other stocks. While large-scale fleet's (LSF) effort and landings increase modestly in the short term, small-scale fleet's (SSF) outcomes declines over time, with lower landings, higher CO₂ emissions per kg of fish, and reduced gross value added (GVA). Employment (FTE) is also negatively affected, particularly for SSF fleets. Although excluding cod and whiting provides initial economic gains for LSF, these benefits diminish by 2060, and overall, no long-term improvement in economic or social indicators is observed. This analysis highlights the systemic consequences of altering choke dynamics and reinforces the need to consider fleet-specific vulnerabilities and interactions when adapting management strategies in mixed fisheries under climate uncertainty.
In the North Sea case study, two key concerns were raised by NSAC: firstly, the growing role of Lusitanian species in the North Sea, assessing their contribution to recent and projected catches and revenues in the context of climate change and secondly, potential strategies to alleviate choke species effects, particularly cod, in mixed demersal fisheries to reduce forgone yields from healthier stocks. Lusitanian fish species and cephalopods are already contributing significantly to North Sea fisheries revenues, although boreal species remain dominant, particularly in ICES areas 27.4 and 27.3.A. Some Lusitanian species with established assessments (e.g., sole, turbot, whiting) are already included in the North Sea FLBEIA model. To expand this integration, robust biological sampling and formal assessments are essential prerequisites for newly emerging species to be considered as dynamic stocks in the model. Cod, despite declining productivity, continues to play a key economic role in the demersal mixed fisheries. Shifting management focus away from cod towards other stocks could benefit some fleets economically, while others may be at a disadvantage. Revisiting quota allocations among countries and fleets could unlock new catch opportunities and reduce inefficiencies due to mismatched technical interactions. However, such shifts risk increasing bycatch and discards, potentially leading to higher CO₂ emissions per unit of seafood consumed.
In the Central Mediterranean (Mediterranean case study), the effects of climate change and alternative management strategies on economic performance across key fleet segments operating in GSAs 17, 18, and 19 were investigated. The analysis highlighted the vulnerability of certain fleets—particularly polyvalent and longline vessels targeting hake and red mullet—and the potential for positive outcomes under moderate warming (RCP 4.5) for trawlers targeting shrimps. In the management scenarios on selectivity improvement for trawlers and effort quotas based on FMSY, the shrimp stocks consistently deliver better outcomes than the status quo, both in terms of GVA and CO₂ emissions per kg of fish. These scenarios promote improved exploitation patterns and effort allocation, helping to stabilize economic returns and mitigate climate-induced declines. The scenario with improved selectivity for trawlers, in particular, enhances resilience for mixed fleets in Croatia and Italy, while the reallocation of effort quotas benefits shrimp-dominated fisheries in GSAs 18 and 19. The ratio of SSF to LSF value remains stable overall, although the inclusion of 25% effort reduction on non-trawlers in the scenario with improved selectivity introduces notable shifts due to effort redistribution.
In the Eastern Mediterranean (Mediterranean case study), key issues affecting the mixed demersal fishery in the eastern Ionian Sea were explored. In this area, European hake and red mullet are exploited predominantly by the small-scale coastal fleet, and to a lesser extent by bottom trawlers. Although only the LSF is currently under formal management obligations, SEAwise simulations applied management scenarios to both fleets, acknowledging the substantial contribution of the SSF to total landings. Notably, results show that achieving sustainable exploitation of hake—identified as the most overexploited stock—cannot be accomplished by regulating trawlers alone. Two alternative management scenarios based on F01 and pretty good yield (PGY) were compared with existing ones. Both improved biological sustainability and economic viability, with PGY_alt showing a more balanced outcome across fleets by limiting the effort reduction burden on the SSF. Climate projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were also integrated, following the feedback received during the MEDAC review workshop, revealing moderate average impacts but high uncertainty, particularly for hake recruitment. These findings highlight the need for more nuanced strategies, including spatial and métier-specific measures, to ensure effective, equitable management. Moreover, given the SSF’s minimal regulation and substantial role in hake exploitation, future policy must prioritise its monitoring and management.
Overall, the results highlight the importance of regionally tailored, multi-fleet, and climate-aware strategies that address technical interactions, socio-economic trade-offs, and long-term sustainability. Ongoing dialogue and structured exchange with stakeholders through dedicated review workshops proved essential to refining model assumptions, identifying priorities, ensuring that proposed management approaches are grounded in practical knowledge and shared goals, and identifying future research needs.
